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Ersatz future climate data
(climate weather change scenarios for 2030 and 2050)
Large-scale systems typically operate for a life cycle of 20 years or more. Most buildings last many decades longer. Any renewable energy system or building is likely to experience a change of climate over its effective functional lifetime.
Exemplary Energy has developed advanced techniques to create Ersatz Future Meteorological Year files (EFMY) to ensure that plant systems are designed and financed with due consideration of a changing climate, by predicting the range of likely and foreseeable future system responses producing RMY data sets for future climate scenarios by combining CSIRO climate projections with baseline data representative of "current" climate. For details of how this is done, please see this presentation or published paper.
CSIRO provided projected seasonal and monthly change values for each of the 100 sites for 2030 and 2050 for low (B1), mid-range (A1B) and high (A1FI) worldwide greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios.
"Future climate data for 100 prospective Australian solar energy sites" by John M Clarke, Craig Heady and Dr Leanne Webb, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, September 2014
For this CSIRO report, which forms the basis of these EFMYs, click here.